Serbia: Hikes Rate for 1st Time in 3 Years.

The National Bank of Serbia hiked its key policy rate by 25bps to 6.0% in its November 2026 decision, breaking the streak of unchanged rates that started in October 2024. The Executive Board noted that prolonged uncertainty in the international environment due to the war in the Middle East continued to increase prices of oil, natural gas, and electricity, which recently triggered a jump in domestic refining margins. The Board cited increased risks of secondary effects on inflation from high energy prices as a reason for raising interest rates. Inflation rose to a 14-month high of 4.4% according to the latest data, loosely aligned with the central bank's expectations. In turn, real GDP growth is expected at 4.0% in the third quarter, indicating robust economic activity and adding leeway for higher interest rates to combat inflation.