China: Trade Surplus Surpasses Estimates.

China’s trade surplus narrowed to $84.82 billion in April 2026 from $95.85 billion in the same period of 2025, but surpassed market expectations of $83.3 billion. Export growth accelerated sharply to 14.1%, reaching a record peak of $359.44 billion, up from March’s 2.5% rise and much faster than forecasts of 7.9%, due to seasonal factors, as companies rushed to stockpile components from the manufacturing powerhouse amid fears the Iran war could push input costs even higher. Meanwhile, imports surged 25.3% year-on-year to $274.62 billion, above expectations of 15.2% and marking the second consecutive month of record-high imports, though slightly lower than the 27.8% jump in the previous month. The trade surplus with the US stood at $23.07 billion in April. For the first four months of 2026, China’s trade surplus reached $347.70 billion, down from $368.8 billion in the same period of 2025, while exports and imports rose by 14.5% and 23.6%, respectively.