Oil: Brent Crude Rises Past $110

Brent crude oil futures climbed past $110 per barrel on Friday, the highest since mid 2022, as investors monitored the latest escalations in the Middle Eastern conflict. Markets are now pricing in actual supply destruction as Iraq declared force majeure on all oilfields and drone strikes hit Kuwaiti refineries. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump rejected a ceasefire in Iran and expressed confidence the Strait of Hormuz would open itself despite the Pentagon deploying thousands of additional Marines amid weighing plans to seize Kharg Island. Geopolitical risk premiums expanded following drone strikes on refineries in Kuwait and reports of heavy preparations for ground troops. Markets are now discounting a diplomatic resolution and instead preparing for a prolonged disruption to global energy flows. Geopolitical risk premiums expanded despite the IEA releasing 400 million barrels from reserves as plunging tanker traffic outweighed emergency inventory measures.