The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note edged higher to 4.63% on Thursday as investors continued to assess the outlook for monetary policy and the path of interest rates. Markets see around a 55% chance of a Fed rate hike at its September meeting, down from 68% on Monday. Attention now turns to Friday's US jobs report, which is expected to provide fresh insight into labour market conditions. Investors expect payroll growth to remain resilient, although ADP data released earlier this week showed private-sector hiring slowed sharply in July. Meanwhile, announced job cuts fell to their lowest level in two years. At the same time, geopolitical risks remain elevated. A lasting agreement between the US and Iran appears unlikely in the short term, keeping pressure on energy prices and sustaining concerns that higher commodity costs would fuel inflation, pressuring the Fed to raise borrowing costs.