The composite leading business cycle indicator in South Africa fell by 1.4% month-over-month in June 2026, accelerating from a 0.3% decrease in the previous month and marking its third consecutive monthly decline. The drop was mainly driven by lower US dollar-denominated export commodity prices and slower growth in real M1 money supply, with five of the seven available component series declining. Additional weakness came from a narrower interest rate spread, fewer new passenger vehicle sales and weaker leading indicators among South Africa’s major trading partners. Meanwhile, support came from an increase in residential building plans approved and faster growth in job advertisements. The coincident business cycle indicator also fell 0.2% in May, while the lagging indicator rose 0.9%.