Switzerland’s 10-year government bond yield has traded around 0.38% since early August, as uncertainty over the Middle East conflict keeps attention on economic growth, inflation and monetary policy. Swiss economic growth, excluding sports, accelerated sharply to 1.5% in Q2 2026. Meanwhile, inflation slowed to 0.4% in July, its lowest level in four months. Both readings point to limited pass-through from higher energy prices linked to geopolitical tensions, contrasting with the SNB’s expectations of moderating growth and rising inflation. Foreign exchange interventions supported exporters by limiting safe-haven flows and preventing excessive appreciation. However, US trade policy remains a key uncertainty. The SNB kept rates at 0% at its latest meeting and is expected to hold them there through 2027, with further cuts viewed as a contingency rather than the base case. Most economists expect the first rate hike in early 2028, while markets are pricing in one as early as March 2027.