The US PCE price index is expected to rise 0.5% month-over-month in April 2026, following a 0.7% increase in March, which marked the sharpest gain since June 2022 amid a surge in energy costs triggered by the war with Iran. The core PCE index, which excludes food and energy, is projected to increase 0.3%, matching the pace recorded in the previous month. On an annual basis, headline PCE inflation is expected to accelerate for a second straight month to 3.8% from 3.5% in March, reaching its highest level since May 2023 and aligning with headline CPI inflation. Core PCE inflation is also seen edging higher to 3.3% from 3.2%, marking its highest reading since late 2023. Overall, the report is likely to reinforce the view that inflationary pressures remain elevated and well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.