The New Zealand dollar held its recent advance at around $0.586 after President Donald Trump again said that the conflict with Iran would conclude “very quickly,” reviving hopes for a peace deal. Further supporting the currency, data released today showed New Zealand’s trade surplus widened to a record high in April, well above expectations, driven by strong export growth. This signaled resilient external demand despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. However, recent indicators point to a softening in domestic economic momentum. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has maintained a cautious stance on policy tightening, given the economy has only recently emerged from recession and still has significant spare capacity. Still, market pricing suggests around a 30% chance of a rate increase later this month and a 90% probability in July, amid inflation concerns due to elevated oil prices.