The Chicago Business Barometer fell to 40.6 in September of 2025 from 41.5 in the previous month, well below market expectations that it would improve to 43 to reflect the sharpest contraction in activity in three months. It was the 22nd consecutive reading below the neutral threshold of 50, extending the prolonged contractionary trend in noted in the survey. New orders sank by 7 points from the previous month to nearly match the year-to-date low from May. Consequently, the softer demand backdrop drove firms to ease their headcounts and the employment gauge fell 4.1 points, lowering the index to its lowest since June of 2009 at the immediate aftermath of the global financial crisis. Still, production rose by 3.8 points to mark the first increase after five consecutive declines. On the price front, costs paid by companies moderated by 0.4 points.