The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note rose to 4.14% on Wednesday, after slipping nearly 5bps in the prior session, as traders weighed the monetary policy outlook. On Tuesday, Fed Chair Powell offered few fresh signals on the path for the fed funds rate - particularly on whether another cut could come next month - while underscoring persistent risks in both the labor market and inflation. Markets are currently pricing in a 94% chance of a 25bps cut at the next meeting and a 77% probability of an additional move in December. Attention now turns to Friday’s PCE report for fresh inflation data, alongside a heavy week of Treasury supply, including $70 billion in 5-year notes today and $44 billion in 7-year notes on Thursday.