The 10 year Brazilian government bond yield climbed toward 14.1% as investors re-priced both growth and fiscal risk. Q2 GDP slowed to 2.2% year on year, the softest expansion in more than three years, while gross fixed capital formation fell about 2.2%, signaling that investment has cooled under a prolonged 15% Selic that is tightening credit and business activity. Sticky inflation and a still resilient labor market complicate the timing of any rate cuts, keeping monetary policy on a restrictive path. At the same time public debt is moving toward roughly 79% of GDP for 2025 and a large share of federal debt is tied to floating rates, which makes the debt stock unusually rate sensitive and raises term premia when fiscal or market uncertainty flares.