The yield on the US 10-year Treasury fell below 4.05% at the start of the week, hovering near April lows, as traders await the Federal Reserve’s policy decision. Markets have fully priced in a 25 bps cut to the fed funds rate on Wednesday, while assigning a small probability to a larger 50 bps move, following recent data showing a sharp cooling in the labor market. Attention will also be on the Fed’s updated macroeconomic projections - particularly the interest rate outlook - with investors broadly expecting cuts to continue through year-end. The vote split will be closely watched as well, as the FOMC has not been divided three ways since 2019. Traders are also monitoring whether Stephen Miran will be confirmed as a Fed governor in time for the meeting.