The Australian dollar weakened to below $0.653 on Monday, marking its third consecutive session of losses, pressured by mounting expectations of an RBA rate cut and renewed tariff concerns. Markets are now priced in at a 99.7% probability that the Reserve Bank of Australia will deliver a 25bps rate cut on Tuesday, its third cut this year. That would bring the official cash rate down to 3.6%, in response to easing inflation risks and a slowing domestic economy. Investors also grew cautious ahead of this week’s Fed meeting minutes, seeking clues on the central bank’s future policy direction. On the trade front, President Trump confirmed new tariffs will take effect on August 1, with final rates still under negotiation. Treasury Secretary Bessent said countries without trade deals by then will face tariff levels reverting to those set on April 2. Despite these pressures, analysts expect the Aussie to remain stable due to its dependence on the gradually recovering Chinese economy.