Italy’s 10-year government bond yield held steady at 3.5% at the end of July, as investors looked ahead to a week of key European economic data releases. Attention is centered on Italy’s inflation and unemployment figures, as well as second-quarter GDP numbers, which could play a key role in shaping the European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy direction. ECB rate cut expectations shifted following the announcement of the US-EU trade agreement. Markets have now postponed the likelihood of a 25 basis point cut to March 2026, with the probability rising to 90%. In contrast, the chance of a cut by December 2025 has slipped to below 70%. Meanwhile, investors are also monitoring developments across the Atlantic. The Federal Reserve’s policy decision, set for Wednesday, is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, coming just ahead of President Trump’s August 1 tariff deadline. The upcoming US jobs report, due Friday, is also in focus.