29 July 2025, 18:06 World: IMF Lifts GDP Growth Outlook, Warns of Lingering Risks.
The IMF projected global economic growth at 3.0% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, slightly higher than previous forecasts from April 2025. The upward revision - by 0.2 pp for 2025 and 0.1 for 2026 - reflects stronger-than-expected early economic activity in anticipation of higher tariffs, lower-than-expected US tariff rates, improved financial conditions due in part to a weaker USD, and fiscal expansion in several major economies. Despite the slightly improved outlook, the IMF warns that risks remain tilted to the downside. A rebound in tariffs or failure to reach lasting trade agreements could dampen growth. Growth forecasts for key economies include the US at 1.9% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026, the Eurozone at 1.0% and 1.2%, and the UK at 1.2% and 1.4%. China’s growth was revised up to 4.8% and 4.2%, while Japan is expected to grow more modestly at 0.7% and 0.5%. Meanwhile, global inflation is expected to ease to 4.2% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026, although it is likely to remain above target in the US.
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