18 July 2025, 18:09 USA: Dollar Falls on Friday, Still Heads for 2nd Weekly Gain.
The US dollar fell below 98.3 from a near four-week low as Fed Governor Christopher Waller reiterated his support for a July rate cut, while data showed improving inflation expectations. Waller signaled he might dissent if the Fed holds rates steady later this month, citing a weakening labor market and falling inflation risks. He noted that any inflationary impact from tariffs would likely be temporary and sees no signs that inflation expectations are rising, giving the Fed room to ease. The University of Michigan survey showed consumers now expect 4.4% inflation over the next year, down from 5% previously. Still, markets remain skeptical, pricing near-zero odds of a cut on July 30 and only 45 basis points of easing by year-end, down from over 65 basis points at the start of July, largely due to strong June jobs data. Despite Friday’s dip, the dollar is on track to rise 0.4% this week, marking its second straight weekly gain.
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