LONDON (AFX) - A raft of euro zone figures due for release in the coming week will show that inflationary pressures are easing further and that Germany's economy is on course for a recovery next year, economists said.
Investors will be closely eyeing the crucial German Ifo business confidence numbers. Following three consecutive monthly declines, economists are hopeful that the index will increase in November, though it will still remain short of the the pre-Sept 11 levels. "A November rise in the Ifo business climate index probably would boost expectations that German GDP will stop declining in the first quarter 2002, but would occur too late to dispel expectations of a meaningful output contraction in the current quarter," said Schroder Salomon Smith Barney Michael Saunders. German data will dominate the week and PPI, CPI and import price figures will highlight benign inflationary pressures in Europe's largest economy.
France will also be a focus and consumer spending figures for November are expected to rebound in November, boosted by spending on clothing and auto sales.
The euro zone aggregate inflation figures for November are expected to show a small fall in both headline and core figures. The core figure is nudging towards 2 pct. Dresdner Kleinwort expects the rate to continue to delince to around 1 pct in the spring as growth in aggregates stays well trend.
"Not only will that provide an ex-post validation of interest rate cuts that we have seen, but it will also open the door to addional reductions in the refinancing rate," DKW said in a research note.

Economists' forecasts for euro zone indicators due Dec 17-21

AFX CONSENSUS PREVIOUS

MONDAY DEC 17 - FRIDAY DEC 21
German PPI (Nov)
month-on month -0.2 pct -0.9 pct
year-on-year 0.2 pct 0.6 pct

German Import Prices (Nov)
month-by-month -0.4 pct -1.6 pct
year-on-year -6.6 pct -5.6 pct

German CPI (Nov)
month-by-month 0.1 pct -0.2 pct
year-on-year 1.7 pct 1.7 pct

MONDAY DEC 17
German Ifo Index (Nov) 85.2 84.7

TUESDAY DEC 18
Euro Zone CPI (Nov)
month-on-month unchanged -0.1 pct
year-on-year 2.5 pct 2.4 pct

Core Euro Zone CPI (Nov)
month-on-month 0.1 pct 0.1 pct
year-on-year 2.2 pct 2.3 pct

Euro Zone Industrial Production (Nov)
month-month -0.7 -0.5
year-on-year -1.7 -0.6

WEDNESDAY DEC 19
Spain GDP (Q3)
quarter-on-quarter 0.4 pct 0.7 pct
year-on-year 2.6 pct 3.0 pct

THURSDAY DEC 20
French Consumer Spending (Nov)
month-on-month 0.2 pct -0.4 pct
year-on-year 2.6 pct 3.1 pct

FRENCH CPI (Nov)
month-on-month -0.3 pct 0.1 pct
year-on-year 1.2 pct 1.8 pct

Italian GDP (Q3)
quarter-on-quarter 0.2 pct 0.0 pct
year-on-year 1.9 pct 2.1 pct

Italian Cities CPI (Nov)
month-on-month unchanged 0.2 pct
year-on-year 2.3 pct 2.4 pct

FRIDAY DEC 21
Italian Retail sales (Oct)
month-on-month unchanged -0.2 pct

year-on-year 0.9 pct 0.4 pct