30 March 2001, 10:54 Europe FX Opening: Summary of overnight moves and what's ahead
London, March 30 (BridgeNews) - The following is a summary of
overnight moves since Europe's close, plus possible leaders for the
session ahead:
EUR CL * US CL * PREV DAY HI-LO * ASIA HI-LO
EUR/USD 0.8830 0.8791 0.8799-0.8882 0.8767-0.8835
USD/CHF 1.7225 1.7275 1.7214-1.7343 1.7243-1.7380
USD/JPY 123.70 124.39 122.18-123.76 123.22-124.72
EUR/JPY 109.25 109.37 108.27-109.63 108.85-109.75
EUR/CHF 1.5256 1.5234 1.5213-1.5329 1.5220-1.5248
EUR/GBP 0.6184 0.6154 0.6133-0.6188 0.6150-0.6191
CABLE 1.4272 1.4278 1.4265-1.4419 1.4260-1.4278
DOW CL 9799 (+14)
NAS CL 1820 (-33)
KEY ISSUES:
* USD reigns supreme across the board; set to make further gains, tripping
historical highs against a range of currencies.
* EUR continues to suffer against USD, with criticism of the ECB's caution
on monetary policy building * JPY weaker as Aso indicates Bush and Mori
did discuss a weaker JPY.
* Franco German summit to see first ECB comments post rate decision from
Welteke, Trichet.
Europe Open: USD powers ahead; EUR down on ECB, JPY on Aso
The USD continues to reign supreme, making further gains across the board.
The EUR took another step lower in overnight trading on continued
pessimism over the expected impact of the US led economic slowdown on the
euro zone economy and on disappointment the ECB failed to act to prop up
the economy and cut the refi rate. Meanwhile, the JPY was hit after a
Japanese minister confirmed a weaker JPY had been discussed within the US
administration prior to the Mori-Bush summit of March 19, though this was
removed from the text of the official remarks. The day ahead looks set to
be one where the USD tests and possibly breaks historical/technical highs
against a range of currencies.
--EUR/USD was supported by option defence bids around the 0.88 figure
in US trading, but dropped to a 4 month low of 0.8767 during the Asian
session as option related stops were taken out under 0.8780-90. Selling
was seen from a combination of German, European, UK and US names.
Attention today will initially focus on a joint press conference given by
the BOF's Trichet, the BBK's Welteke, German Finance Minister Eichel and
French Finance Minister Fabius from a summit in Rouen at 0815 GMT.
French unemployment and Italian CPI data are released during the day,
while the focus shifts to the US in the afternoon for the important
personal consumption data for February and the Chicago PMI for March.
--USD/JPY dipped from a late US high around 123.80 to the 123.20
region in early Asian trading as the market went into the Tokyo fixing
over long.
However, the pair leapt to a fresh 22-month high of 124.72 after Japanese
Economy Minister Aso said that, although a weak JPY policy was discussed
within the US administration prior to the Mori-Bush meeting on March 19,
the topic did not make it to the table at the meeting. This would seem to
confirm rumors of such over the last few days. BOJ Governor Hayami added
weight to the JPY, saying the global slowdown is hurting the Japanese
economy. The JPY was also undermined by a poor set of economic data,
housing starts falling 4.9% on the year in February while CPI fell 0.3% on
the month and 0.1% year on year in the same month. The unemployment
rate, however, dipped to 4.7% in February from 4.9% in January.
--EUR/JPY was pulled higher by the JPY's losses, extending a late
Thursday recovery to a 3-day high of 109.75.
--Cable traded a tight 1.4250-1.4290 range while EUR/GBP, after
pushing to a late US high around 0.6190 underperformed, slipping to the
0.6145 area in the Asian morning.
--AUD/USD fell to a 4-day low around 0.4890 in sympathy with EUR/USD
and was also undermined by a drop in NZD/USD. Australia's goods and
services trade surplus for February came in at an above forecast 389 mln
AUD, but this was countered by a 10.8% month on month fall in building
approvals in February. The NZD was undermined by a below forecast 0.6%
quarter on quarter rise in GDP, NZD/USD dropping to a near 4-month low
around 0.4020.
--USD/CAD firmed to an 8-day high around 1.5755 in the wake of BOC
Governor Dodge's comments of late Wednesday in which he indicated
intervention to support the CAD is currently off the agenda. Canadian GDP
for January is released at 1330 GMT.
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