Jan Result: -1.9% m/m, +5.1% y/y
MNI Survey Median: -0.2% m/m, +7.0% y/y
MNI Survey Range: -3.1% to +0.5% m/m; +4.0% to +8.2% y/y
Previous Result: +1.7% m/m (revised down from +2.0% m/m),
+8.2% y/y (revised up from +8.0% y/y)
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FRANKFURT (MktNews) - A stronger-than-expected fall both on the month and on the year in eurozone industrial production in January points to a deterioration of the 12-nation economy at the start of 2001.
Nevertheless, part of the deterioration might have been caused by calendar effects, especially problems concerning work-day adjustment. December 2000 had exceptionally few working days, Eurostat said, conceding that a high index value for December may have exaggerated the size of the m/m decline in January.
All the same, the data confirm the industrial slowdown in Europe, which, combined with a sharp drop in west German business sentiment in February (Ifo data released earlier in the day), put pressure on the European Central Bank to cut interest rates to counter the fast and sharp slowdown in eurozone growth.
The overall decline in January eurozone output was mainly due to sharp drops in Denmark (-4.4%, after +5.2% in December), the Netherlands (-10.6%, after +6.0%) and Italy (-1.8%, after +2.1%). Italy had four fewer official working days in December 2000 than in December 1999.
Eurozone industrial production for December was revised to +1.7% m/m and +8.2% y/y, compared to +2.0% and +8.0% initially reported.
In addition, Greece was included for the first time in the data aggregate in January. In December, if Greece had been included, eurozone production would have risen by only 1.6%, or less than the EMU-11 figure of 1.7%.
Among sub-categories, EMU output in January rose only for capital goods (+0.5%) on the month. In all other categories, output dropped on the month, led by a 1.4% drop in intermediate goods, followed by durable consumer goods (-0.8%), and non-durable consumer goods (-0.2%).
Versus January 2000 levels, capital goods rose by 10.8%, durable consumer goods were up 5.6%, intermediate goods increased 3.9% and non-durable goods by 2.1% in the euro area.
In the European Union, seasonally adjusted output dropped 1.8% on the month in January, while work-day adjusted output was up 4.4% on the year.