21 March 2001, 12:25 Christian Noyer said Tuesday
GENEVA, Switzerland (MktNews) - European Central Bank Vice
President Christian Noyer said Tuesday that while both pillars of
monetary policy show that eurozone inflation risks are declining, the
ECB needs further proof that price stability will return in the
medium-term, and be maintained, before it can consider a cut in official
interest rates.
But Noyer also indicated that if the ECB were sure of medium-term
price stability, then the harmonised eurozone consumer inflation rate
(HICP) need not have yet have fallen below 2% for it to act.
More important to the ECB than the current headline inflation rate
is the assurance that price stability will return sustainably in the
medium-term, he stressed to reporters after a speech here.
"The current (HICP) rate has no importance at all," Noyer said. "If
we were at 2.4% and absolutely sure that we would return to 2% and fall
below in the coming months, and remain there over time, our problem
would be resolved."
Noyer declined to specify at what inflation threshold the ECB could
move on interest rates, saying only it must be reassured on price trends
over the medium-term. But if there is leeway, then "monetary policy
should not be more restrictive than necessary," he said.
"We want to be sure that price trends will lead us in one to two
years into the zone of price stability," Noyer said. "This was not clear
a few months ago" and "we still do not have all the pieces of
information yet" to reassure on medium-term price stability.
"This depends on domestic pressures," he continued, citing in
particular uncertainty about wage trends. However, wages in Germany,
France and Italy are not of concern at the moment, he added.
"Overall, things are better" in the inflation environment, he
said.
"Money supply growth is slowing," he said, with the monetary
situation becoming "more normal" and risks "much more balanced now."
In addition, "the international environment -- the exchange rate,
commodity prices, oil prices -- is calming," he added.
Noyer also said he did not understand the logic behind arguments
that the ECB should follow the Federal Reserve's lead on interest rate
policy.
The Fed has cut sharply since the beginning of the year due to the
stagnation of U.S. growth, but U.S. rates remain higher than in the
eurozone, which saw 3% growth in the fourth quarter last year, Noyer
said.
The influence of Fed policy on the ECB "is not nil, but relatively
weak."
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