14 March 2001, 17:43 US FX Daily Outlook: Dollar mixed, gives up gains versus euro (part 3)
* EUR/USD reversed losses from a 16-day low of 0.9078, triggering small
scale intraday buy-stops above 0.9150. Resistance comes in a t0.9209 from
the 20-day moving average.
EU-15 countries recorded a provisional current account deficit of 13.3
billion EUR in the fourth quarter of 2000, up from a revised 7.9 billion
EUR deficit in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter of 1999, the EU-15
recorded a current account deficit of 1.9 billion EUR. The EU-15 balance
of external trade in services expanded to a surplus of 3.0 billion EUR in
the fourth quarter, from a 1.4 billion-EUR surplus in the third quarter.
In the fourth quarter of 1999, the EU-15 recorded a 0.3 billion-EUR
surplus.
All-German January retail sales rose a real 4.8% on year and were 6.2%
higher in nominal price terms.
The EUR/USD outlook is mixed.
Support: 0.9136 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the June-October
downtrend), 0.9078 (overnight low), 0.9040 (200-day moving average),
0.9015 (Feb. 22 low; 2-month low), 0.8979 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement
level of the July 26-Oct. 26 downtrend), 0.8963 (50% Fibonacci retracement
level of the June-Oct. downtrend), 0.8880 (Dec. 19 low).
Resistance: 0.9170 (overnight high), 0.9209 (20-day moving average),
0.9382 (March 2 peak), 0.9446 (Feb. 1 high), 0.9504 (Jan. 19 high), 0.9595
(Jan. 5 high; 6-month high), 0.9621 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of
the Jan 1998-Oct 2000 downtrend), 0.9693 (June 19 peak), 0.9702 (June 8
peak), 0.9795 (March 2 high).
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