14 March 2001, 17:42 US FX Daily Outlook: Dollar mixed, gives up gains versus euro (part 2)
* USD/JPY saw good two-way activity, peaking in Asia at 120.23, bottoming
out in Europe at 119.31, and then bouncing back to 120.00. Some specs
noted a German name has been seen selling JPY against several currencies.
The pair is looking for new leads after hitting a 20-month high of 120.72
Monday.
On the political front, Japan's ruling coalition defeated the motion
of censure submitted by the opposition against Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori
in the upper house Wednesday morning.
The vote of 105 for and 138 against Mori's censure came one day after
he nearly announced his resignation publicly, and nine days after the
beleaguered Mori survived a no-confidence motion in the House of
Representatives.
Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasuo Fukuda said that Mori's
emergency economic policy headquarters will meet at 0900 JT Thursday and
said it is natural to be cautious on tax steps.
Mori set up a new headquarters in the Cabinet Office to implement
emergency economic measures released Friday. Mori's support will be needed
to overpower resistance to many of the measures put forward by policy chiefs in his
ruling coalition from within the government and the LDP Tax Commission.
The economic data out of Japan was ignored.
Japan's current account posted a 249.6 billion yen surplus in January,
down 59.7% on the year. Debt left by Japan bankruptcies in February fell
7.6% on the year to 1.115 trillion yen. Despite the fall, it was the
second biggest figure for the month of February in the post-war era.
Bankruptcies totaled 1,448 cases, up 0.3% on the year.
The outlook is mixed.
Support: 119.65 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 119.15/120.15), 119.31
(overnight low), 119.00 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the August
1998-December 1999 downtrend), 118.25 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets:
117.75 /118.75), 117.78 (20-day moving average), 116.85 (Gann 50-point
pivot; targets: 116.35/117.35).
Resistance: 120.23 (overnight high), 120.72 (March 12 peak; 20-month
high), 121.05 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 120.55/121.55), 122.50 (Gann
50-point pivot; targets: 122.00/123.00), 122.77 (July 8, 1999, peak),
124.00 (Gann 50-point pivot; targets: 123.50/124.50.
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