STATISTICS OFFICE (EXCLUDING AUTOS/PETROL STATIONS):

Jan Result: +2.5% m/m (sa real), +4.8% y/y (nsa real)
MNI Survey Median: +3.0% y/y (nsa real)
MNI Survey Range: -3.0% to +4.5% y/y (nsa real)
Dec Result -0.5% m/m (sa real), -2.5% y/y (nsa real)
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*BUNDESBANK (EXCLUDING AUTOS/PETROL STATIONS)

Jan result -0.3% m/m, +1.2% y/y (both real sa)
Dec result +0.5% m/m, +0.7% y/y (both real sa)
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*BUNDESBANK (TOTAL RETAIL SALES, INCLUDING AUTOS/PETROL STATIONS)

Jan result -0.3% m/m, +1.4% y/y (both real sa)
Dec result +0.8% m/m, Unch. y/y (both real sa)
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FRANKFURT (MktNews) - Bundesbank data for German real retail sales in January were much weaker than the stronger-than-expected figures released earlier in the day by the Federal Statistics Office and thus cast doubt on the strength of consumer spending.
The 1.2% real, adjusted year-on-year rise in retail sales indicated by the Bundesbank data -- excluding sales at auto dealerships, petrol stations and wholesale warehouses and, thus, comparable with Statistics Office data -- was at the lower end of forecasts in a Market News survey of analysts. It was also much lower than the 4.8% unadjusted y/y rise shown by the Statistics Office's data -- which was above all forecasts.
The difference is explained by the fact that Bundesbank y/y data are calendar adjusted while the Statistics Office data are not. There was one more shopping day in January 2001 (26) than in Jan. 2000 (25).
In addition, the Bundesbank data show that seasonal and calendar adjusted sales dropped 0.3% in January compared to December, while Statistics Office data show a seasonal and calendar adjusted rise of 2.5% on the month. This discrepancy is explained by the different seasonal adjustment methods used by the two agencies.
The Bundesbank data, unlike those from the Statistics Office, leave the impression that January retail sales were less robust than expected.
This impression is supported Bundesbank data for total retail sales -- including autos, petrol and warehouses -- which fell 0.3% on the month and were up only 1.4% on the year in January. Notably, nominal auto sales fell 2.8% on the month and were down 0.1% on the year.
Still, the full psychological impact of the income tax cuts that took effect at the start of the year will not be felt before February, since most workers will see a rise in their disposal income only with the pay-checks that they receive at the end of January.
The German government is counting on stronger consumer spending this year -- based not only on the tax cuts but also on continued employment growth and lower energy costs -- to buoy private consumption and thereby offset an expected slowing of net exports. However, recent disappointing economic data, continued high energy prices and a growing number of downward revisions in German economic growth forecasts for 2001 could damage consumer confidence in coming months and lead to a deterioration in the outlook.