The annual inflation rate in the US is expected to ease to 3.8% in June 2026 from 4.2% in May, marking its first slowdown in four months after reaching its highest level since April 2023. On a monthly basis, the CPI is forecast to edge down 0.1%, which would be the first decline since May 2020, largely reflecting lower energy prices. Gasoline prices are estimated to have fallen by approximately 9% following the ceasefire between the US and Iran, alleviating inflationary pressures from the energy component. Moderate increases are expected in airfares and rents, while prices for services, particularly hotel and motel accommodations, are likely to rise amid increased demand related to the FIFA World Cup. Motor vehicle insurance prices are also expected to rebound. Meanwhile, core consumer prices likely rose 0.2% for a second consecutive month, leaving the annual core inflation rate unchanged at 2.9%.