The US economy is expected to have added 85,000 jobs in May 2026, marking a modest slowdown after two consecutive months of job gains exceeding 100,000. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 4.3%. Average hourly earnings are projected to rise 0.3% month-over-month, accelerating slightly from April’s 0.2% increase. On an annual basis, however, wage growth is expected to ease to 3.4% from 3.6%. The May report is expected to continue to reflect a resilient labour market, with the prevailing low-hire, low-fire dynamic remaining firmly in place, although some analysts suggest that such dynamic may be changing.