The euro closed June at around $1.14, close to its one-year low, as investors turned their attention to the ECB’s Sintra Forum and inflation updates from Europe’s major economies. The highlight is Wednesday’s panel with ECB President Christine Lagarde as markets seek clues on economic assessments and policy directions. Inflation data showed France’s EU-harmonized consumer price inflation fell more than expected to 2.0% in June from May’s two-year high of 2.8%, while Spain’s rate remained at 3.6%, matching its highest level since June 2024. The euro is on track for a monthly loss of over 2% against the US dollar and a 1.3% quarterly decline, with investors expecting the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year to curb inflation amid a robust labor market. Meanwhile, the US-Iran ceasefire, which reopened the Strait of Hormuz, has lowered oil prices and inflation expectations, leading markets to scale back bets on rate hikes by the ECB and Bank of England.