The National Bank of Georgia held its key policy rate steady at 8.25% during its June 2026 meeting, noting global uncertainty despite signs of improved sentiment. Headline inflation increased to 5.7% in May, significantly above the central bank’s target of 3%, primarily driven by higher energy prices and ongoing supply chain disruptions. Inflation is expected to remain elevated during the second quarter of the year, averaging 4.9% in 2026. Economic activity remains robust, expanding by 6.2% in April and averaging 8.3% growth overall. However, global uncertainty continues to pose risks to the outlook. An escalation of geopolitical tensions would likely drive commodity prices higher, keeping inflation above target for a longer period. Conversely, stable commodity prices contribute to a faster moderation of inflationary pressures. Future decisions will regard current geopolitical tensions, continuing to moderate in case of prolonged conflict and normalization may proceed if tensions ease.