The Chicago Business Barometer fell to 49.2 in April 2026 from 52.8 in March, missing market expectations of 53 and signaling a contraction in business activity. The decline reflected the impact of rising energy costs due to the Middle East conflict, with drops in order backlogs, new orders, supplier deliveries, and production. Meanwhile, employment increased. The prices paid index reached its highest level since June, driven by higher costs for oil, metals, and transportation fuel surcharges.