The Australian dollar rose above $0.71, recovering from a roughly 0.3% loss in the previous week to stay near four-year highs, as surging energy prices strengthened expectations of rate hikes ahead of upcoming inflation data this week. Although a ceasefire has mostly been held since early April, efforts to resume peace talks between the US and Iran stalled, while energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain constrained. The resulting energy-supply shock continues to fuel inflation risks, reinforcing expectations that central banks will keep interest rates higher for longer or deliver further hikes. In Australia, investors await the upcoming March CPI report due on Wednesday, with headline inflation expected to rise 4.7% year-on-year, well above the Reserve Bank’s 2–3% target. Any upside surprise could solidify bets on a 25-basis-point rate hike at the central bank’s May 5 meeting. Markets are currently pricing in an 80% probability of a third rate hike this year to 4.35%.