The Indonesian rupiah hovered near IDR 17,160 on Monday, after briefly hitting a fresh low of around IDR 17,200 in the prior session. Despite the mild rebound, the currency remained under pressure as a stronger U.S. dollar boosted demand for haven assets amid renewed U.S.–Iran tensions. Persistent capital outflows continued to weigh on the rupiah, driven by elevated oil prices, rising inflation risks, and seasonal dividend repatriation. Fiscal challenges also added to the downside, as policymakers seek to balance stability with growth. Against this backdrop, Bank Indonesia will hold a policy meeting this week, with expectations of a cautious stance after keeping rates unchanged in March for a sixth straight time, following 150bp of cuts since September 2024. Continued intervention may further strain forex reserves, which fell to a near two-year low in March. Jakarta still targets growth above 5.3% in 2026, while the IMF sees a softer 5.0% on global risks and commodity volatility.