The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note was little changed at 4.13% on Monday, after rising to as much as 4.21% earlier in the session, as oil prices pared some gains and moved back below $100 per barrel. Despite the slight relief, concerns about an energy-driven surge in inflation that could prevent the Fed from cutting interest rates continue to weigh on investor sentiment. The conflict shows little sign of easing, with major Middle Eastern producers including Kuwait, Iran, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia, cutting output amid limited storage capacity and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Reflecting these pressures, traders now expect only one 25bps rate cut from the Fed this year, most likely in September, compared with two cuts expected just a week ago. Investors are also looking ahead to a busy week of economic data, including the CPI report, the PCE price index, and JOLTS job openings, which should provide further insight into the strength of the US economy.