Aluminum futures in the UK are expected rise sharply on Monday after two major aluminum production sites in the Middle East were hit by Iranian strikes, heightening fears of prolonged supply disruptions. Emirates Global Aluminium, the region’s top producer, reported “significant damage” at its Abu Dhabi facility, while Aluminium Bahrain said it was assessing the extent of the damage to its operations. Earlier this month, Alba had already shut down 19% of its 1.6-million-tonne-per-year capacity due to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The Middle East accounts for roughly 9% of global supply, and these attacks raise the risk of a global shortage of the metal, even if maritime traffic through the Strait eventually normalizes. Adding further uncertainty, Guinea is actively considering introducing bauxite export quotas, potentially tightening raw material availability for global smelters.