The South African Reserve Bank unsurprisingly held its key repo rate at 6.75% on March 26, 2026, marking a second consecutive pause, citing upside risks to the inflation outlook due to the ongoing Middle East conflict.. Policymakers noted that inflation was moving in a positive direction, matching the 3% target in February, but higher energy prices are expected to push inflation higher in the near term. Headline inflation is projected to rise to around 4% in the second quarter, led by fuel inflation exceeding 18%, before gradually easing back to 3% by late next year under the baseline forecast. Overall, Inflation forecasts were raised to 3.7% for 2026 (from 3.3%) and to 3.3% for 2027 (from 3.2%), while the projected year-end policy rate was revised up to 6.47% (from 6.31%). The Bank also outlined two potential scenarios regarding the Iran conflict: a short-term, two-month scenario and a prolonged, one-year scenario, both implying the need for higher interest rates.