South Africa’s 10-year bond yield was around 8.90%, holding close to the highest since late October 2025, as continued geopolitical tensions continued to constrain investor sentiment. The broader economic outlook is being complicated by global risks, particularly the conflict in the Middle East and its impact on energy prices and inflation. At the start of the year, South Africa’s macroeconomic picture had been gradually improving, with moderating inflation, progress in fiscal consolidation, and markets beginning to anticipate further monetary policy easing. However, hostilities in the Middle East have sent oil prices soaring, raising concerns that the South African Reserve Bank’s 3% inflation target may be difficult to achieve this year. A sustained rise in oil prices could push inflation higher at a time when policymakers were aiming to anchor expectations closer to the SARB’s target. The central bank is due to meet on 26 March and it is anticipated to keep rates unchanged.