Japan’s Business Survey Index for large manufacturers fell to 3.8% in the first quarter of 2026 from 4.7% in Q4, but remained in positive territory for the third consecutive quarter. The latest reading came in below market expectations of 5.5%, as businesses grappled with the Middle East conflict and surging oil prices. That heightened concerns about a potential economic hit and renewed inflationary pressures in Japan, while complicating the outlook for fiscal and monetary policy. Looking ahead, manufacturing sentiment is expected to weaken further to 0.7% in Q2 before rebounding to 6.3% in Q3. The index, based on a survey of major manufacturers, remains a key barometer for an economy where industrial output plays a central role.