The Indonesian rupiah firmed to around IDR 16,860 per dollar on Monday, snapping two sessions of losses as the U.S. dollar index retreated ahead of key U.S. data releases, including job reports, retail sales, and delayed inflation data. Locally, forex reserves stayed robust in January despite a slight dip, reinforcing confidence in Indonesia’s external position. Support stems from ongoing trade surpluses, record FDI in Q4, and stabilizing portfolio inflows. Meanwhile, a rise in January inflation was largely due to base effects from last year’s electricity tariff discounts, easing immediate policy concerns. Meantime, Bank Indonesia has pledged to guard rupiah stability through interventions and liquidity operations, expecting a gradual recovery. Gains were capped, however, by the prospects of further monetary easing this year after 150bp cuts since September 2024. Meanwhile, Moody’s shifted Indonesia's credit rating outlook to negative from stable, citing governance and fiscal risks.