The US PCE price index is expected to rise 0.3% month over month in December 2025, while the core PCE index which excludes food and energy, is also forecast to increase by 0.3%, compared with gains of 0.2% in November. On a year-on-year basis, the PCE inflation likely steadied at 2.8% while the core rate is seen edging higher to 2.9% from 2.8%. The PCE price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, is expected to show in its December report that progress in bringing inflation down has slowed, with price pressures remaining stubbornly above the Fed’s 2% target.