The National Bank of Kazakhstan kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 18% on January 23, 2026, in line with market expectations citing persistently high inflation and strong domestic demand. Annual inflation stood at 12.3% at end-2025, in line with the central bank's forecasts, driven mainly by food prices, while monthly inflation edged up to 0.9% in December and core inflation remained elevated. Inflation expectations rose further, with households’ one-year outlook at 14.7% and market participants’ 2026 expectations at 10.8%. While a stronger tenge and tighter financial conditions have supported disinflation, upside risks linger, including the effects of fuel price liberalization, tariff reforms, tax changes, and the planned quasi-fiscal stimulus. Against this backdrop, the central bank signaled that the policy rate is likely to remain at its current level through the first half of 2026. The next rate decision is due on March 6, 2026.