Japan’s core machinery orders, which exclude volatile sectors such as ships and electric power, jumped 7% month-over-month to 992.9 billion yen in October 2025, accelerating from a 4.2% gain in September and defying market expectations for a 2.3% decline. The October reading was also the highest since March. The gain was driven by a sharp rebound in the non-manufacturing sector, where orders surged 28.8% to 551.7 billion yen. In contrast, manufacturing orders fell 13.3% to 446.5 billion yen. By industry, the strongest increases were recorded in information services (103.4%), goods leasing (984.7%), transportation and postal activities (47.9%), telecommunications (44.8%), and textile mill products (35.9%). On a year-on-year basis, private-sector orders increased 12.5% in October, up from an 11.6% gain in September and well above forecasts of 3.6%. Core machinery orders are widely viewed as a key, albeit volatile, leading indicator of capital expenditure over the next six to nine months.