The UK 10-year gilt yield rose to 4.48%, the highest in over two weeks, as markets looked to the upcoming budget and digested the Bank of England’s latest decision. The BoE kept rates at 4% in a tight 5–4 vote, with Governor Andrew Bailey tipping the balance. Four members backed a 25 bps cut to 3.75%. The bank said September’s 3.8% inflation was likely the peak, and Bailey signaled that risks have eased, edging closer to supporting cuts. Guidance now says rates are likely to continue on a gradual downward path. Markets expect a December cut, pending the Labour government’s budget and more inflation and jobs data. Traders price a 60% chance of a 25 bps move and see rates settling near 3.5%. Markets expect more volatility as the budget approaches.