The South African rand traded just below 17.1 per USD, holding close to its highest since January 2023, investors welcomed S&P Global’s first credit upgrade of the country since 2005, following a budget review signaling stronger fiscal discipline. Market attention now shifts to October consumer inflation and September retail sales data on November 19, ahead of the central bank’s rate decision on November 20. Economists remain divided on whether the South African Reserve Bank will cut rates by 25 basis points to 6.75% or or maintain the current stance. Treasury backing of a 3% inflation target reinforces the shift toward a lower inflation path, which could guide expectations down and increase the likelihood of a rate cut. However, policymakers may prioritize bringing inflation expectations fully in line with the new inflation goal.