The yield on the US 10-year Treasury fell back below 4% on Thursday, reversing a short-lived rebound earlier in the session and edging toward a one-year low as investors reassessed economic weakness and the monetary policy outlook. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index slumped 36 points to –12.8, well below expectations, highlighting softening activity and raising concerns about broader economic growth, which pushed demand for longer-dated Treasuries higher. The ongoing US government shutdown has delayed key economic releases, including the September CPI, further clouding the Fed’s policy path. Futures markets are pricing in nearly certain 25-basis-point rate cuts at the October and December meetings, reflecting expectations that the central bank will continue easing in response to slowing activity. Additional commentary from Fed officials, coupled with the prospect of reduced quantitative tightening, have further pressured long-end yields.