The yield on the US 10-year Treasury traded slightly higher at 4.01% on Thursday, its first increase in three sessions, though it remained near April lows. Investors awaited fresh catalysts while monitoring US–China trade tensions and the ongoing federal government shutdown, which continues to delay the release of key economic data. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index unexpectedly fell to a six-month low. On the monetary policy front, markets continued to price in a 96% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed at the end of the month, with bets on a similar move in December rising to 91%. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said policymakers could continue lowering rates in quarter-point increments to support a weakening labor market, while Stephen Miran reiterated his call for a larger reduction. Earlier in the week, Fed Chair Powell warned of mounting risks to employment, another indication that the central bank is likely to continue easing borrowing costs.