The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in the US fell for the first time in three months to 98.8 in September 2025 from 100.8 in August and well below forecasts of 100.5. The reading signalled a decline in optimism among small business owners, with supply chain disruptions and inflation emerging as the main concerns. 14% of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem and 64% reported that supply chain disruptions were affecting their business to some degree. One bright spot was actual earnings changes, which increased to its highest level since December 2021. "While most owners evaluate their own business as currently healthy, they are having to manage rising inflationary pressures, slower sales expectations, and ongoing labor market challenges. Although uncertainty is high, small business owners remain resilient as they seek to better understand how policy changes will impact their operations", NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg said.