The National Bank of Kazakhstan raised its benchmark interest rate to 18% on October 10, 2025, as inflation pressures intensified amid robust demand and loose monetary conditions. Inflation has increased across all key metrics, with annual inflation accelerating to 12.9% in September from 12.2% in August, exceeding forecasts as food and service prices surged on higher production and import costs. Non-food inflation also rose to 10.8%, reflecting continued fuel price liberalization, while inflation expectations climbed to 12%, signaling lingering uncertainty. Strong domestic demand, fiscal expansion, and rapid credit growth further strained supply capacity, with additional pro-inflationary risks from tax and tariff reforms. With GDP growth accelerating to 6.5% in January–August, driven by construction, trade, and industry, the central bank opted for a decisive tightening step to stabilize expectations and preserve tenge assets. The next rate decision is due November 28.