The Australian dollar rose to above $0.650 on Thursday, marking its third straight session of gains, as robust trade figures boosted sentiment. Australia’s trade surplus widened to AUD 5.37 billion in June 2025, the largest since March, up sharply from AUD 1.60 billion in May and well above forecasts of AUD 2.5 billion. The rebound was driven by a 6.0% rise in exports to a 16-month high of AUD 44.32 billion. Meanwhile, investors turned cautious after US President Trump vowed steep tariffs on semiconductor imports and doubled duties on Indian goods to 50%. He also warned he could impose similar tariffs on China over its ties to Russian oil, signaling his intent to penalize nations supporting Moscow amid the Ukraine war. On the policy front, the Aussie faced pressure from rising bets of rate cuts by the RBA next week and the US Fed in September, with swaps pricing 92% odds of a quarter-point RBA cut on August 12. Markets now await China’s trade data - Australia’s top trading partner.