The Chicago Business Barometer declined to 41.5 in August 2025 from 47.1 in July, missing market expectations of 46. The index remained below the 50-point threshold for the 21st consecutive month, signaling continued contraction in business activity. The decline was primarily driven by a sharp drop in new orders (-10.8 points), the largest since September 2023, followed by a decrease in production (-3.6 points), marking the fifth consecutive monthly decline and the weakest level since December 2024. Order backlogs fell (-1.4 points), while inventories declined (-2.3 points), reflecting reduced demand and cautious stockpiling. Supplier deliveries rose (+5.8 points), partially offsetting the slowdown, while inflationary pressures eased, with the prices paid index falling (-8.3 points), matching July’s pace.