The US PCE price index is expected to rise 0.2% month-over-month in July 2025, down from June’s 0.3% gain. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, is projected to increase 0.3%, matching the prior month. Annually, headline PCE inflation is seen steady at 2.6%, while core PCE is set to edge up to 2.9% from 2.8%, its highest in five months. The PCE index is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.