The National Bank of Kazakhstan kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 16.5% on August 29, 2025, maintaining a tight stance amid persistent inflation risks. Annual inflation held at 11.8% in July, with food prices driving increases as services slowed, while monthly inflation eased to 0.7% but stayed above historical averages. Inflation expectations rose to 14.2%, underscoring entrenched pressures from tariff reforms, fiscal stimulus, and rapid consumer lending. The Bank revised its inflation forecast to 11–12.5% for 2025 and GDP growth to 5.5–6.5%. Policymakers stressed that restrictive policy, along with fiscal consolidation and new reserve requirements effective in September, will help steer inflation toward the 5% target. Further hikes remain possible if disinflation stalls. The next decision is due October 10.