The Ibovespa closed slightly higher at 138,025 on Monday as bets on global rate cuts and softer domestic inflation projections offset political and fiscal risks. Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks lifted the probability of a September Fed cut, compressing local forward rates and easing equity discounting. At the same time the Central Bank Focus survey trimmed 2025 IPCA expectations to 4.86%, reinforcing prospects of Selic cuts from 15% and supporting rotation into rate-sensitive sectors. These supports were checked by unresolved US tariff threats pressuring commodity and logistics chains and by legal and political headlines raising governance concerns for major banks and state-linked firms. With IPCA-15 and key global data ahead, investors stayed cautious. WEG and Eletrobras rose 0.9% and 1.8%, while Banco do Brasil and Embraer fell 1.9% and 2.2%.